Prospective and strategic thinking: a tool for construction the future in times of complexity

This investigation was realized fundamentally in order to contribute to generating information that offers material related to the current situation around the problem under study: “Disarticulation of the dimensions that determine the development of the agricultural sector of the Municipality of La Uvita, Boyacá: community, production, knowledge and power.” This situation is mainly due to the absence of a concerted agreement of wills among the different actors involved in achieving the competitiveness of this sector, which has limited the structuring of policies, plans, programs, projects and long-term strategies. The central question is: how can the dimensions that determine the development of the agricultural sector of the Municipality of La Uvita, Boyacá be articulated? In this way, the actors involved in these dimensions can later make relevant decisions (strategic, tactical and operational) of social responsibility, based on the results obtained, in order to promote environmental sustainability, economic sustainability, governance, competitiveness and equity within the local and rural environment. The following methodological stages of prospective strategic planning were executed: workshop for the selection of change factors; strategic analysis method using the DOFA matrix (Weaknesses, Opportunities, Strengths and Threats); workshop for defining key variables using the François Regnier Abacus method, Microsoft Excel [xls] software with macro-enabled spreadsheets, Regnier Abacus version 4.0; actors’ strategy workshop using the MACTOR method (Method, Actors, Objectives, Force Results), MACTOR software; scenario design workshop using Peter Schwartz’s scenario cross method; strategy selection workshop using the MULTIPOL method (Multiple Criteria and Policies); and the design of the prospective and strategic plan using the strategic deployment method and PESTEXPRESS software (Strategic Plan Express) version 2014. The results of the research made it possible to validate the problem, the alternative hypothesis (HA) and/or the null hypothesis (H0), as well as the research objectives. They also enabled the design of the prospective and strategic plan aimed at achieving the 2040 target scenario for the agricultural sector of the Municipality of La Uvita, Boyacá, through the application of the strategic foresight model and the strategic deployment method.