Prospective Study of the Dairy Sector in the Municipality of Ciénaga, Boyacá Department

This research contributes to the organizational strengthening from the formulation of the strategic and prospective plan for the dairy sector of the municipality of Ciénaga, Department of Boyacá, based on the methodology of strategic prospecting, from the state of the art phases and technological surveillance of the dairy sector ; as well as the identification of the factors of change and structural analysis with the MICMAC method, the analysis of the game of MACTOR actors, towards the design of scenarios according to the crossaxis methodology of Peter Schwartz, for the formulation of strategies and action plans (Mojica, 2008).

The primary need of the sector is the strategic direction oriented to face pandemic scenarios; as well as the growth potential of the dairy sector, which generates highly exploitable challenges and opportunities, through the application of the Delphi method aimed at experts; as well as the application of the MICMAC and MACTOR methods of the strategic foresight toolbox. (Godet & Durance, 2007), in the search for results of strategic direction of the sector, to take advantage of opportunities through the formulation of actions aimed at improving the current situation.

The results are oriented towards the planning of future scenarios and the formulation of the strategic plan to achieve these scenarios by 2030, through SWOT analysis, the Kaoru Ishikawa quality method, the Kaizen method and the application of Michael’s five forces. Porter, which shows an important scope due to the great strengths and opportunities available to the dairy sector in the region. It is evident that the sector has a technique and a solid market in the commercialization region, the technology used is competent to mark its production process in a relevant way, but there is still resistance to change, since the administrative process, although it has a path, It is not governed by planning that responds to short, medium and long term projections, which must be adjusted to the proposals of this research.